A new policy brief from GIGA by Bert Hoffmann, a member of the GLACIER Steering Committee, offers a forward-looking snapshot of Latin America in 2026, arguing that the year will be shaped by a combination of external pressure and domestic political turning points. The analysis places the United States at the center of the regional outlook, with a more assertive hemispheric posture expected to influence relations with Venezuela, migration and security agendas, and Latin America’s room for maneuver with China. At the same time, a busy electoral calendar, rising concerns over crime and insecurity, deepening socioeconomic strain in countries such as Cuba, and accelerating climate impacts create a volatile mix of risks and uncertainties that will affect governance and regional cooperation.
Bert Hoffmann identifies ten things to watch in Latin America in 2026:
1. Venezuela after Maduro: Even a decisive external shock would not guarantee a quick transition, and could instead produce a prolonged standoff with serious regional and international repercussions.
2. A revived Monroe Doctrine: The United States is portrayed as seeking a more assertive hemispheric posture, combining political pressure with economic leverage.
3. Latin America and China: Countries try to preserve trade and investment ties with China while navigating growing US–China tension and possible constraints on Chinese engagement.
4. Elections in 2026: A packed electoral calendar may reinforce volatility and fragmentation, with the possibility of further rightward shifts in some contexts.
5. Brazil’s turning point: Brazil’s presidential election is framed as a key regional contest, with high polarization and implications for foreign policy orientation.
6. Crime and insecurity politics: Security agendas and “mano dura” approaches remain powerful drivers of political competition, regardless of mixed evidence on effectiveness.
7. Trumpification of the right: Alignment with Trump style politics may reshape alliances on the right, but can also create domestic backlash and internal divisions.
8. Mexico as an outlier: Mexico faces intense pressure at the intersection of trade, migration, and security, with major tests ahead in its relationship with the United States.
9. Cuba’s deepening crisis: Economic strain and external constraints are presented as pushing Cuba into a more acute and uncertain phase.
10. Climate impacts and health risks: Fires, floods, drought, and storms intensify, and weakened prevention capacity raises concerns about renewed infectious disease risks.